What's the Economical Outlook Looking Like?

[LixyChick]

This country is in turmoil. Since our president has taken office we have been in a slump (to put it lightly) as to the economy. Hubbies work has slowed (construction and therefore destruction biz is down) and even my business is in a slump. I'm on 32 hours and have been for a month. So many people have been laid-off or just out and out lost their jobs due to cut-backs and downsizing.

My question is to the aspiring (or real life) economists out there. What is the outlook? Give it to me straight....and don't sugarcoat it! LOL!

[Lilith]

I will go consult Madame Lilith:p

[LixyChick]

Originally posted by Lilith
I will go consult Madame Lilith:p


Oh Goody! Now we'll get the poop...the whole poop...and nothing but the poop!

[Lilith]

and that would be different than a real economist, how?:p:D

[skipthisone]

Well I read my trade mags (printing) and they keep downing the forecast for the year. My companies president has taken a different look at things. He has chosen to not let our company partake in the recession. In the last year we have added equipment and employees and our profit went up 4% last year.

I have my degree in economics (but do not practice) and it is just my opinion, but this thing was started by the tech fall and the furthered by 9-11 and the worries there after. Japan and other areas were in a slump before us and frankly the stock market and other things were way overpriced. The state goverments are in the red by billions (34 states at last count), mostly because they overspent during the boon of the 90's and now cannot bring themselves to cut what needs cut. So some are raising taxes..some are having bake sales (think that was somewhere in nebraska).

BTW, Case in point a great article I read (will attach the article when i find it). If California would today go back to the budget they had in 1996 and not raise any taxes they would have close to 400 million dollars left over.

I personally think this will be short lived. I think the federal tax cut is a good thing, but think it should be attached to spending cuts not to going into debt. No recession has ever lasted forever, no boom has ever lasted forever, it goes in cycles. We were just spoiled of how long the last one went. I hate it that there is this unemployment and someday I am sure I will be one of them at some point. Be it now or 30 years from now.

Said enough.

[dicksbro]

My opinion sitting here in the heartland pond is that the rich are likely to continue to get richer while most of us struggle harder to make ends meet.

Well, okay some ends will meet regarless of the economy. In fact, if we're spending more time at home near the bedroom, the meetings could occur with increased frequency.

And, if that's the case, we should see some things increase in approximately nine months. OMG. A whole new generation of Pixies.

Well with a whole new generation of Pixies on the way, that means that food supplies will have to increase. So farming should boom. And, of course, diapers, while generally dealing with the bottom part of society, will likely see an economic upturn. At least if all the little boys are as horny as their dads which got us, in part, to this place.

I also suspect Kleenex, in a decline since the demise of the rescue ranger, will also see a resurgence as we try to get things cleaned up.

Of course, if Kleenex and diaper demand goes up, that means the whole waste disposal industry is in for a major boom, triggering the demand for new trucks and rubbermaid waste cans.

This in turn promises new Walmart business as we all shop for new waste cans. And, of course, as we shop for waste cans we'll probably find something else we want to buy.

Hmmmm.

Bottom line is that I think Bill Gales future is safe. And, before you know it, there'll be a new election and a whole set of new promises.

Does that make you feel better?

[Aqua]

Originally posted by skipthisone
Well I read my trade mags (printing) and they keep downing the forecast for the year. My companies president has taken a different look at things. He has chosen to not let our company partake in the recession. In the last year we have added equipment and employees and our profit went up 4% last year.

I have my degree in economics (but do not practice) and it is just my opinion, but this thing was started by the tech fall and the furthered by 9-11 and the worries there after. Japan and other areas were in a slump before us and frankly the stock market and other things were way overpriced. The state goverments are in the red by billions (34 states at last count), mostly because they overspent during the boon of the 90's and now cannot bring themselves to cut what needs cut. So some are raising taxes..some are having bake sales (think that was somewhere in nebraska).

BTW, Case in point a great article I read (will attach the article when i find it). If California would today go back to the budget they had in 1996 and not raise any taxes they would have close to 400 million dollars left over.

I personally think this will be short lived. I think the federal tax cut is a good thing, but think it should be attached to spending cuts not to going into debt. No recession has ever lasted forever, no boom has ever lasted forever, it goes in cycles. We were just spoiled of how long the last one went. I hate it that there is this unemployment and someday I am sure I will be one of them at some point. Be it now or 30 years from now.

Said enough.

Who are you and what have you done with skip?!

[Lilith]

Originally posted by Aqua


Who are you and what have you done with skip?!

I dunno but this new one makes me drip;)

oh the old one did too:p

[skipthisone]

Geez show my RL personality just once and see what happens...

[LixyChick]

Originally posted by skipthisone
Geez show my RL personality just once and see what happens...
Don't worry! I'm absorbing it all and I appreciate you any way you present yourself.....(though I have to admit I love you nakky most of all) *kisses*

OK...so if I get this straight.......We have to go back to go forward? I understand the juxtaposition.....but I can't fathom a back peddal from anyone at this point. The state governments have never (and correct me if I am wrong here) redirected their economy to reflect a time when things were good. They (heads of state) still keep their jobs, still get regular and ridiculous raises, and still tax us with the pretense that it will make for a better economy! I've never heard of them taking a pay cut to bestow upon us more money for economic balance.

I agree with the spending cuts........I don't own a toilet seat worth $5,000.00 and neither should the asses on capitol hill (pun intended). I know...I know...the cuts to which you refer...I just had to put that in there so "big brother" knows we are watching back!

I know no recession has lasted forever....but I heard a report the other day that we are not just in a recession at this point, but more closer to the depression of the 20's. I don't like standing in line for a loaf of bread......I hated it when I had to get gas on "my" even day in the 70's.

So.....I guess what I am now asking is......what can we....as common folk......do to make this thing turn around?

TY for all the replies thus far......even the silly ones....I hate getting this deep....but inquiring mind that I am....I need to know!

[Lilith]

Spend

[skipthisone]

Bingo Lilith....Econ 101...it is the only way to make an economy grow.

I knew you were smart as well as sexy.

[dicksbro]

Silly one(s)? Who would reply with a silly response? Ahem. Seriously, I think we will see a turnaround yet this year assuming no more "9/11" kinds of things. There. That was serious.

[LixyChick]

TY all......just wanted to know.....and as usual......you summed it up inna nutshell (to coin a phrase from another thread).

Move along.....nothing more to see here!

[BlueSwede]

All I know is that my heart goes out to people like my parents whose business will probably fold after 50 years, and all of their money is tied up in it. They've managed to survive every other recession, but it doesn't look like they'll survive this one. They live in Rockford, Illinois, a city with a lot of machinist companies (not sure what to call them), including theirs (a drillhead company). They've cut their employees from 30 to 8 and all have taken drastic cuts in pay and hours. I know the recession has hurt them, but from what I understand, most of it is because customers are taking their business overseas or are buying from overseas businesses rather than the U.S. ones and the U.S. ones can't compete. My mom said on Sunday that it's really scarey to drive around town and see the large number of companies that have closed, ones that have been around for years, like their own. She said companies are filing bankruptcy right and left, far more than in past years. :(

[LixyChick]

I hear ya Blue! It seems to be the trickle UP effect as opposed to a domino trickle down effect.....is what's happening. The small "Mom and Pop" outfits, such as the one I work for (a subcontractor of much larger corporations, such as Knoll, International and Steelcase) are getting the bite well before the bigger guys! But, I have been told that Knoll, in this part of the country, is going under and it's production will be done in Mexico...with some of the more better known products going down south. And Knoll has been around here as long as most of my friends can remember. It will put over 2000 people out of work. Hershey (the candy company) was here for a while. It bought out Cherrydale......a company that had been around as long as Knoll....and then, suddenly, the building is empty again. Pillsbury moved it's N.E. company from here....and same thing....it had been around these parts as long as Knoll. Each week we notice something different in these surrounding towns. I wonder if this is how a ghost town becomes one? Wal-Mart had a bid in to build a Super Wal-Mart (exactly what the town needed to boost it's economy) and hubby said it's plans are now scrubbed. His company had won the bid to blast the new site.....so that's another job lost here. Then a Super WaWa ( a convience store that would have been much appreciated) made a bid for the same spot Wal-Mart had.....and suddenly it's plans were scrubbed. No explaination for either disinterest.

As to the spending notion......I agree with it in principal......but if there is nowhere in your local to spend......the drive can make you think twice before putting your pennies forth. The one and only (small time) dept. store within reasonable driving distance to me was an Ames.....which just pulled up stakes. The general joke around here now is......you can't even buy a pair of socks or underwear in this friggin town! And, it's absofrigginlutely true. I drive the distance when I need something.....I have to because I have no choice. But shopping is a bigger chore now than tending the back fourty! I can't be expected to go broke.......while spending all my money on gas....just to get to a store to spend my money....which is now cut back from stock loss and hour cuts! I don't have much of a savings since I bought a home...and it's getting harder and harder to keep from dipping into the proverbial nest-egg. OK....granted, I am not as bad off as some people I know or have heard of....and I know my little part of the world isn't of global consequence........but it's started here....in rural America.........and when "they" finally get it....it will be too late for some........like Blue's parents!

So.........I guess I was wrong......maybe there IS more to see here.......but I thought it was getting too deep......

But, maybe we actually need to talk about it.

I'll let you all be the judge!

[jennaflower]

all I have to say (and boy do I expect the slam to follow).... the condition of our economy has nothing to do with Pres. Bush... sorry.. I don't buy it for a moment... he hasn't been in office long enough to turn around the mess that Clinton did...

[dadaist]

I'm not sure it was entirely Clinton's mess.
One thing a lot of people DON'T say about the tech bubble is how many extra staff were on hand EVERYWHERE to re-write code for potential Y2K disasters, that never happened! After 1/1/2000, and after all that code was cleaned up, all those people could be, and WERE let go!
That and look at the tech cycles (and yeah, I am talkin tech here, but it IS my background).
First generation, 70s computers - were for hobbyists and geeks.
Second generation, late 70s, were for some businesses (think Visicalc), schools, home users and so on.
Third generation, early 80s included the first IBMs. Now ALL the businesses wanted to get on board. A lot of the late 70s companies continued, but started to offer compatibility for CP/M and MS-DOS.
Mid-80s was the fourth generation, the birth of the GUIs. Macintosh. Windows Version 1. Atari's ST. Commodore's Amiga.
A number of people who had the 70s stuff and could afford to, upgraded to the newer machines, because they had graphics capabilities that were totally new to home users.
Around the early 90s Amiga and Atari discontiuned their computers. Microsoft released Windows 3.1/3.11, and Apple was looking at PowerPCs. About the same time, the web got its graphical face, thanks to Mosaic. And once ISPs started offering it, EVERYONE wanted to get on the Internet. That meant more machines, for home and business.
Then late 90s, start adding different recording media (zip, cd-r, cd-rw, dvd-r, etc). And now we're here.
Parts are CHEAP, margins in PC sales are GONE. The only place left to make money is in services, because they're no easier to use now than they were 10-15 years ago (take WHAT arrow and move it where and click with WHAT button?). So no wonder that whole sector is so depressed (probably economically as well as emotionally).
No more quick .com startups, no more Linux bandwagon, no REAL reason to make major upgrades (it's very easy to do in increments - add more RAM, then do the video board another month, etc.) and that means no big transactions.
Yes the consumer does help in little ways with each purchase and upgrade (even in non-tech areas), but it's going to take a lot of mood-lifting to get people to really spend again.

There's my two cents.

[jennaflower]

The more I think about this topic….. and this nations economic problems.. the more heated I become.

First, let me say (in order to erase any doubts), my father is proud I am a republican.. LOL… just had to say it…
Altho my gut reaction is to blame Billary for ALL of the woes that this country is experiencing in the aftermath of his terms, as a somewhat intelligent (depending on the topic) person, I know that isn’t entirely true. In all fairness, Billary was/is only one in a string of slimy politicians who continue to put their own goals and desires before the needs of the people. Although that being said, I still firmly believe that 75% of the mess we find our selves in now can be linked to that mans greed and selfishness…


Thanks to the web, I was able to get some figures that I thought might interest all of you… after reading these numbers… maybe it will become a bit more clear as to why our economy is the way that it is…

Congress: Rank-and-File Members' Salary
In December, 2001, Congress voted not to block a scheduled pay increase raising the annual salary for a rank-and-file Senator or Representative by $4,900 to $150,000 per year. This increase, the third in the last four years, goes into effect on Jan. 1, 2002. Since 1990, (ironically who was the president for the majority of that time?) congressional pay has increased from $98,400 to $150,000.

Congress: Leadership Members' Salary (108th Congress)
Leaders of the House and Senate are paid a higher salary than rank-and-file members.
Senate Leadership
Majority Leader - $161,200 (Sen. Bill Frist)
Minority Leader - $161,200 (Sen. Thomas Daschle)
House Leadership
Speaker of the House - $186,300 (Rep. Dennis Hastert)
Majority Leader - $161,200 (Rep. Dick Armey)
Minority Leader - $161,200 (Rep. Nancy Pelosi)

I don’t believe for a moment that ANY public servant should be paid that amount of money. Especially when you consider the limited work they do and the limited period of time they are expected to do it in.

The bottom line is.. our economy and our willingness to allow politicians to RAPE the tax payers is the fundamental reason why this country is as bad off as it is. We allow our politicians to become multi millionaires on taypayers money yet out teachers are hardly scraping by. Until we as a people oust our politicians, there is nothing that is going to change.

Okay.. off my soap box…